GSMA warns 6G spectrum shortage could risk USD $520bn

GSMA said 6G mobile networks could add USD $1.24 trillion to the global economy by 2040, but warned spectrum shortages could put USD $520 billion of that benefit at risk.

According to the industry body, the projected gain would equal 0.7% of global GDP in 2040. The estimate is based on analysis of the economic impact of next-generation mobile technology compared with a scenario in which 5G remained the most advanced network standard.

The figures come as debate over future spectrum allocations intensifies, with GSMA arguing that government decisions in the next few years will determine how much of the projected value is realised.

Its analysis identified manufacturing and financial services as the biggest sector beneficiaries. Manufacturing is forecast to account for 20% of 6G's additional economic contribution in 2040, while financial services is expected to make up 19%.

Construction ranked next at 13%, followed by information and communications technology at 12%. The report also linked 6G growth to wider use of artificial intelligence, industrial automation, immersive digital services and broader connectivity.

Spectrum pressure

Limited access to spectrum could cut 6G's economic contribution by as much as 42% in 2040, with the risk centred on the mid-band and low-band frequencies needed for capacity and coverage.

The analysis found mid-band spectrum would account for 70% of 6G's economic contribution in 2040, while low-band spectrum would contribute about 25% because of its role in extending service into rural areas, inside buildings and in places where higher-frequency airwaves are less effective.

GSMA said losses tied to constrained spectrum access would come on top of any broader economic impact on existing mobile networks, which rely on the same spectrum resources.

It called on governments and regulators to make at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum available by around 2030, including upper 6 GHz spectrum and additional capacity in the upper 3.5 GHz, 4.5 GHz and 7 GHz bands.

GSMA also said the 600 MHz band should be made available for 6G, with 500 MHz considered where appropriate, and urged countries to establish national spectrum roadmaps to give operators greater certainty over investment planning.

Regional split

The report forecast that 6G's gains would be unevenly spread across regions. Greater China was projected to secure USD $390 billion in additional economic value by 2040, ahead of North America at USD $290 billion and Europe at USD $225 billion.

According to the report, the differences will depend on the pace of adoption, national infrastructure and how effectively businesses integrate the technology into operations and services. It argued 6G would create economic value beyond previous mobile generations because it is expected to be built more closely around artificial intelligence and sensing functions.

GSMA identified five areas through which 6G would create added economic value: connectivity for future AI systems; industrial automation and robotics; enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access; integrated sensing and communication; and non-terrestrial networks designed to extend connectivity into underserved areas.

It said those uses would support productivity gains, new products and services, and broader digital development in sectors and locations not fully served by current networks.

John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at GSMA, said: "6G represents a $1.24 trillion opportunity for the global economy. The next generation of mobile technology will help power AI, transform industries and unlock new levels of productivity across the economy. But these benefits are not guaranteed. More than $500 billion of the economic value will depend on the spectrum decisions governments make today to fully realise the economic potential of 6G in the decades ahead."

The intervention puts spectrum policy at the centre of the emerging debate over 6G economics, rather than focusing only on technical development or network deployment timetables.

Giusti reinforced the point in a second statement: "Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth. With 6G on the horizon, governments have an opportunity to ensure their economies can benefit from the next wave of digital innovation. Getting spectrum policy right now will be essential to making that happen."